News that the Trump administration is reviewing AUKUS has caused sceptics to declare it will offer a golden opportunity for the government to escape a pact that is shaping as a strategic catastrophe for Australia.
A Pentagon official said the US wants to make sure the plan aligns with Mr Trump’s “America First” agenda, ensuring “the highest readiness of our service members” and “that the defence industrial base is meeting our needs”.
If the US Navy is facing a war in the Taiwan Strait, then it might prefer to have those additional submarines under its direct control, instead of under the command of another country that might choose to steer clear of the fight.
Under the AUKUS agreement, Washington will only begin to transfer second-hand Virginia-class submarines to Australia if it can first lift its local production rate of nuclear-powered boats to at least two a year by 2028.
Currently, American shipyards are producing around 1.2 nuclear-powered attack submarines per year but will need to hit a target production rate of 2.33 before any can be sold to Australia.
Some Australian officials and politicians insist they are quietly confident Mr Trump and his key lieutenants will not abandon AUKUS.
That seems to be misplaced confidence as Trump is unlike any American president.
Hundreds of millions of dollars have already been invested to prepare Australia for AUKUS, and to ensure Osborne has the capability to construct nuclear submarines.
A new $480 million training academy is under construction, and university places have been designated to build the workforce.
If AUKUS does get scrapped, Australia will be left with a very hefty bill and nothing to show for it.
Earlier this year, the government made a $768 million down-payment to the US as part of an overall pledge of $4.7 billion, to help secure the transfer of second-hand Virginia-class submarines here in the 2030s.
Australia is also scheduled to pay $4.6 billion to the UK to help support the eventual construction of a new SSN-AUKUS fleet, but the government and defence have been reluctant to admit these contributions have a no-refund clause if the submarines do not arrive.
Do you ever get the feeling we may have been had?
If the AUKUS deal was to collapse, Australia’s options to acquire submarines, conventionally powered or nuclear, are limited.
Australia will face a capability gap, with no obvious replacement for our dependable but rapidly ageing Collins Class submarines — all at a time when we’re facing the most perilous strategic landscape in decades.