With NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian locking down NSW for another two weeks, another recession is looming, which is the last thing anyone wants.
We never really hauled ourselves out of the first one caused by the virus last year, but JobKeeper and JobSeeker helped take the sting out of it.
Even so, in recessionary climates there are still jobs, especially in supply chains and cyber security.
Lockdowns are kryptonite for shopping centres and department stores. The Greater Sydney lockdown had only been in place for several days in June, but it was enough to produce a negative retail sales figure for the month of -1.8 per cent.
Household spending, makes up roughly two-thirds of economic activity.
People are still buying household consumables and online stuff but it’s nothing like what it was in 2018/19.
We’re witnessing a historical change in consumer behaviour.
While the faecal matter has hit the fan big time for small businesses, medium and large corporations have fared much better.
CommSec’s net profit is up a colossal 56 per cent on a year ago. JB Hi-Fi, Tabcorp, Ingenia and Domain are booming but we’ll see how well they fare in the next quarter.
Economic forecasting has become something of a joke. As JK Galbraith wrote, “the only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable.”
The pain is deep but remember, this too will pass.