I work at the cutting edge of the employment sector and stories like this are simply bizarre.
Whole sections of the economy such as tourism and international students have crumbled. Retail is comatose. In real terms, close to 3 million people are unemployed or under employed.
This is a story which has come from a spreadsheet on the 30th floor of a Sydney skyscraper, where below, the people look so small.
“The Australian economy has emerged from its first recession in 30 years, the Reserve Bank says.
Deputy governor Guy Debelle told a Senate estimates hearing the economy ‘probably’ expanded over the previous three months even considering the shutdown of Victoria.
The economy contracted through the first six months of the year with the June quarter posting the largest three month slowdown since the end of World War Two.
He admitted that business failures would increase even as the economy started to improve, as many firms were kept afloat by government support programs, temporary insolvency relief or loan repayment deferrals.
The pandemic is also accelerating structural change in the commercial property sector as more people work from home.
While housing demand and prices had held up due to low interest rates and government grants, falling population growth could result in a fall in prices in some cities.
Research by the Moody’s ratings agency found mortgage delinquency rates will rise even as the economy improves as people struggle to repay their home loans.
It said delinquency rates in Victoria were already at their highest level since 2005, while in NSW they were now at a 7-year high.”