I like Morgan’s survey methodology as they door knock. The ABS unemployed survey used by the RBA to determine interest rates is clunky and old hat. I wrote this back in 2018 but it still applies to the ‘ghosts’ in the ABS unemployment figures. The Roy Morgan figures are below.
“In July 2025, Australian ‘real’ unemployment was virtually unchanged at 1,644,000 (down 0.1% to 10.3% of the workforce). However, under-employment surged in July, increasing by 158,000 to 1,737,000 (up 1% to 10.9%).
This is the first time since January that under-employment is higher than unemployment, and the rise in under-employment was matched by a surge in part-time jobs.
In total, 3.38 million Australians (21.2% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in July.
Roy Morgan estimates the overall workforce size (which adds together the employed and unemployed) at just over 15.9 million in July – 15,930,000 to be exact, up 43,000 on a month ago, and representing 69% of Australians aged 14+.
The rise in the workforce was driven by increasing employment, which increased 53,000 to 14,286,000 driven by rising part-time employment, up 75,000 to 5,097,000. In contrast, full-time employment softened marginally, down 22,000 to 9,189,000. Overall employment represents 61.9% of Australians aged 14+.
Detailed Roy Morgan Employment Estimates in July:
Australian workforce increased by 43,000 in July to just over 15.9 million.
In July the Australian workforce increased 43,000 to 15,930,000 driven by an increase in employment, up 53,000 to 14,286,000 while unemployment dropped 10,000 to 1,644,000.
Overall employment increased in July driven by a rise in part-time employment.
Australian employment increased 53,000 to 14,286,000 driven by an increase in part-time employment, up 75,000 to 5,097,000. However, full-time employment dropped 22,000 to 9,189,000.
Unemployment was virtually unchanged in July at 10.3%:
1,644,000 Australians were unemployed (10.3% of the workforce, down 0.1%), down 10,000 from June. The small dip in unemployment was driven by fewer people looking for part-time work, down 157,000 to 949,000 which was offset by many more people looking for full-time work, up 147,000 to 695,000.
Under-employment soared in July, driving overall unemployment and under-employed to 21.2%.
In addition to the unemployed, a further 1.74 million Australians (10.9% of the workforce, up 1%) were under-employed, i.e. working part-time but looking for more work, up 158,000 from June.