I sometimes use the Roy Morgan figures as an antidote to the ABS methodology. Morgan goes door-to-door. The ABS does online and some telephone surveying. Which is better? Morgan.
“Australian unemployment increased to 1.49 million in March (10.9% of the workforce) with an additional 1.32 million now under-employed as overall employment is down on a year ago. The latest data (16 April 2019) for the Roy Morgan employment series for March shows:
The workforce, which comprises employed Australians and those who are unemployed and looking for work, increased by 65,000 to 13,649,000 on a year ago. However, despite the increasing workforce, now 216,000 fewer Australians were employed in March than a year ago, down to 12,158,000.
The fall in employment was driven by a significant decrease in part-time employment of 203,000 to 4,228,000. Over the past year full-time employment was virtually unchanged down by 13,000 to 7,930,000.
The lack of jobs and increasing workforce drove a significant increase in unemployment. Now 1,491,000 Australians (10.9% of the workforce) were unemployed, up 281,000 on a year ago and the unemployment rate is up by 2%.
An additional 1,321,000 Australians (9.7% of the workforce) were under-employed, working part-time and looking for more work, a decrease of 41,000 in a year (down 0.3%).
In total a record high 2,812,000 Australians (20.6% of the workforce) were either unemployed or under-employed in March, an increase of 240,000 in a year (up 1.7%).
Roy Morgan’s real unemployment figure of 10.9% for March is significantly higher than the current ABS estimate for February 2019 of 4.9% although Roy Morgan’s under-employment estimate of 9.7% is comparable to the current ABS underemployment estimate of 8.1%.